Independiente Medellín vs. CR Vasco da Gama - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Independiente Medellín faced Vasco da Gama in the Copa Sudamericana at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, with CONMEBOL listing a 19:00 kick-off and the tie level at 1-1 on aggregate before full time.[1] By the time this market settles, the match result itself will already be known, so a 0% crowd-implied YES price is consistent with a market that is effectively asking whether any *additional* qualifying “more markets” condition was triggered after the game state had been resolved.[1][2]

For historical context, this is the kind of market that a power-user would read through the same lens as late-stage in-play volatility: compare the live score, aggregate state, and competition context, then ignore pre-match priors once the event has moved beyond the settlement trigger. Sports Mole’s pre-match model gave Medellín a narrow edge at 46.31%, with the likeliest scoreline 1-0, while live data shows the game finished 2-2 after Medellín led 1-0 at half-time, underlining how quickly football prices can diverge from opening projections when goals arrive late.[3][2]

The practical catalysts to watch are the official match feed, referee and venue confirmations, and any schedule changes that shift the settlement clock, because these determine whether a bot, conditional order, or copy-trade should treat the market as still active or already stale.[1] For programmatic handling, the key dependency is straightforward: reconcile the exchange market timestamp against the competition fixture and live result feed, then suppress any new order logic once the settlement window has passed and the outcome is final.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.