St Johnstone FC vs. Kilmarnock FC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

St Johnstone and Kilmarnock are scheduled to meet in the Scottish Premiership, and the “More markets” contract is effectively a wrapper around the live in-play and ancillary propositions attached to that fixture. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, the market is pricing in either no additional listed markets before settlement or a very low expectation that the platform will surface qualifying new sub-markets in time, which is consistent with how these event-linked utility contracts can remain dormant until a feed or operator update arrives.[5][19]

For historical framing, this fixture is not one-sided: recent head-to-head records are split enough to resist a simple dominance read, with one source showing St Johnstone ahead across 38 meetings and another showing a broader all-time balance near parity.[1][4] Recent match data also points to fairly tight games, with low shot counts and limited clear-cut chances in the sample stats, and the last five meetings listed by ESPN include multiple one-goal margins and alternating winners.[2][17] For a power-user modelling this programmatically, that means the base rate is less important than the event-state feed: the contract should be watched as a dependency on market creation logic, not on match outcome strength.

The practical catalysts are operational rather than tactical: line-up confirmation, delayed kick-off, betbuilder or same-game market publication, and any change in the match page or exchange feed before the 13:00 UTC settlement cut-off.[5][9][14] If a bot or conditional order system is monitoring this, it should poll for new market IDs, status changes, and suspension events rather than infer from scoreline alone, because the relevant trigger is whether “more markets” are actually listed and tradable, not who starts faster. Recent live coverage pages and match trackers indicate the game is active on major scoreboards, which is the main sign that any late market additions would surface through the standard pre-match or in-play pipeline.[5][9][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.