Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Cajamarca O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cajamarca 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| CD Garcilaso 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| CD Garcilaso O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| FC Cajamarca O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Cajamarca O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| FC Cajamarca 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| FC Cajamarca 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| CD Garcilaso 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| CD Garcilaso 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Cajamarca 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| CD Garcilaso (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca (-1.5) | 0% |
| CD Garcilaso (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
Market context
CD Garcilaso and FC Cajamarca are scheduled to meet in Peru’s Liga 1, and the market is framed as **more markets** rather than the match result itself. A **0% YES** crowd price usually means there is either no active resolution path yet, the market is waiting on a specific additional event, or participants are treating the setup as effectively unavailable until the game state is clearer; for a power-user, that makes it a candidate for tight monitoring rather than blind entry. The previous league meeting between the sides finished **1-1** on 9 February 2026, which is a useful reminder that these fixtures can be low-margin and settled by late, secondary events rather than an obvious pre-match edge.[1][3]
For a programmatic approach, the key is to watch the dependency chain: official line-ups, match postponement notices, and any rules language that defines what counts as “more markets” for this listing. If your tooling supports conditional orders or alerting, tie triggers to fixture confirmation and market metadata changes, because the settlement window closes at **2026-07-27T00:00:00Z** and the underlying match is listed for **26 July at 8:00 PM ET**, so any delay or rescheduling would be the main catalyst to reassess. Recent match databases also show the teams’ last documented head-to-head ended level, which matters because closely balanced pairings often generate more volatile ancillary markets when team news lands close to kick-off.[1][2]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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