Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Sandefjord Fotball O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sandefjord Fotball O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sandefjord Fotball O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sandefjord Fotball 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sandefjord Fotball 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score | 16% |
| O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) | 8% |
| O/U 3.5 | 3% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| Sandefjord Fotball (-1.5) | 0% |
| Sandefjord Fotball (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sandefjord Fotball 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Sandefjord Fotball 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Sandefjord host FK Bodø/Glimt in Eliteserien action, and the market’s **0% YES** implies traders currently see no viable path for the “more markets” bundle to resolve positively before the settlement window closes. For a power-user, that usually means the workflow is to treat this as a live-orphaned contract: poll the underlying event page, watch whether any additional sub-markets are published, and confirm that the market’s definition matches the final set of eligible outcomes rather than the football scoreline itself.
Comparable previews point firmly towards Bodø/Glimt as the stronger side, but not in a way that naturally opens many extra derivative markets unless the exchange lists them explicitly. Sports Mole and other preview models generally frame Bodø/Glimt as favourites, with scoreline projections clustered around away wins and moderate goal totals rather than extreme outcomes.[1][10] Earlier model-based previews also leaned towards Bodø/Glimt with estimated win probabilities around 56-60% and expected goals in the low-to-mid twos, which is the kind of baseline a bot would use to price any additional side markets if they appeared.[2][5][3]
The key catalysts are administrative rather than tactical: whether the platform publishes new eligible markets, whether the match start time shifts, and whether any listed proposition is voided or superseded before the 15:00Z settlement cut-off. A programmatic trader would watch the event feed for market creation timestamps, suspension states, and settlement rules, then reconcile those against the official fixture status and line-up announcements close to kick-off; if no new market appears, a 0% reading can remain rational even while the match itself is still live.[3][10]
Methodology
This page reviews Sandefjord Fotball vs. FK Bodø/Glimt - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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