Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 99% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 97% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 97% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 97% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 97% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 97% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 97% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 97% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 97% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 97% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 97% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 97% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 97% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 97% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 97% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 97% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 97% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 97% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 97% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 97% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 97% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 97% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 97% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 119.5 | 97% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 97% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 97% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 97% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 97% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 97% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 96% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 96% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 95% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 78% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 74% |
| Bijan Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 74% |
| Brian Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 74% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 74% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 74% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 64% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 59% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 59% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 57% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 56% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 54% |
| Austin Hooper: Anytime Touchdown | 53% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown | 52% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Blair: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Drake London: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Drake London: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Love: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mark Redman: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Muse: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Drake London: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 35% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 35% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 26% |
| Bo Melton: 2+ Touchdowns | 23% |
| Bijan Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 20% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Christian Watson: 2+ Touchdowns | 16% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 12% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 10% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 7% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 7% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 7% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 6% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 6% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 6% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 6% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 6% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 6% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 5% |
| Charlie Woerner: 2+ Touchdowns | 5% |
| Jahan Dotson: Anytime Touchdown | 5% |
| Jonnu Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 4% |
| Kaleb Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 4% |
Market context
Falcons vs. Packers - Player Props. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 97% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-25T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Methodology
We track Falcons vs. Packers - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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