Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution

Platform comparison

Market context

An MLS regular season fixture between Toronto FC and New England Revolution will take place on Saturday, 15 August 2026. The match settlement window closes at 23:30 UTC that evening, meaning the event resolves YES if the game occurs as scheduled and NO if it is cancelled, postponed, or fails to commence. The current crowd-implied probability of 100% reflects high confidence in fixture completion, typical for domestic league matches scheduled well in advance with established venue infrastructure.

Historical precedent suggests MLS regular season games rarely fail to materialise. Between 2020 and 2025, fixture cancellations due to weather, facility damage, or administrative issues affected fewer than 2% of scheduled matches. Toronto FC plays at BMO Field in Toronto, whilst New England Revolution uses Gillette Stadium in Massachusetts—both venues have robust drainage and weather contingency protocols. The only material risk factors are severe weather events (hurricanes, ice storms) in the 48 hours preceding kickoff, or unexpected player availability crises affecting either club's ability to field a competitive squad, though the latter does not typically trigger cancellation.

Traders using conditional order logic should monitor National Weather Service alerts for the northeastern United States corridor from 13 August onwards. MLS fixture announcements regarding rescheduling typically arrive 24–48 hours before scheduled kickoff. Recent precedent from the 2024–25 season shows that even matches affected by winter weather were rescheduled rather than cancelled outright. Programmatic monitoring of official MLS communications and venue operator statements provides the most reliable signal; social media announcements from either club often lag official channels by several hours.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.