Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| Nashville SC O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Nashville SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nashville SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Atlanta United FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Atlanta United FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Atlanta United FC O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score | 28% |
| Nashville SC O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Nashville SC (-1.5) | 19% |
| Atlanta United FC O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Nashville SC O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Nashville SC (-2.5) | 6% |
| Atlanta United FC (-1.5) | 5% |
| O/U 4.5 | 2% |
| Atlanta United FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Atlanta United FC O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Nashville SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Nashville SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Atlanta United FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Atlanta United FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Nashville SC faces Atlanta United FC in an MLS fixture scheduled for 17 July at 8:00 PM ET, with the settlement window closing shortly after the match concludes. The market currently implies a 19% probability for the “YES” outcome on an additional betting proposition, a figure that power-users should contextualise against the teams’ head-to-head history rather than treating as an isolated signal. Over their last 15 meetings, Nashville has won six times while Atlanta has secured four victories, with five matches ending in draws, suggesting Nashville holds a slight historical edge that often influences secondary market pricing in MLS encounters [1]. Recent form reinforces this nuance; in their most recent clash on 28 August 2021, Atlanta lost 0–2 at home to Nashville, a result that frequently anchors trader expectations for defensive resilience or low-scoring ancillary markets [3].
A programmatic trader would monitor pre-match catalysts including confirmed starting lineups, late injury updates, and weather conditions, as these dependencies directly impact conditional order execution and copy-trading bot efficacy. For instance, if either side lists a key defender as doubtful, automated systems might adjust exposure on related “more markets” propositions within minutes of the announcement. While no specific late news has emerged for this fixture as of early 18 July, MLS teams often release squad updates between 4:00 PM and 6:00 PM ET on match days, a window that dictates optimal timing for deploying algorithmic strategies [2]. Traders should also watch for any schedule changes or referee assignments, as these can shift probability distributions in real time and trigger stop-loss mechanisms in copy-trading portfolios.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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