FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

FC Cincinnati hosted the San Jose Earthquakes in an MLS regular-season match at TQL Stadium, with the kickoff listed for 7:30 p.m. ET on 1 August. The crowd-implied 100% YES price suggests the market is already treating the underlying fixture as effectively locked, so the practical question for power-users is not direction but whether the “more markets” list updates cleanly once lineups, in-play offers and settlement data are published. [4][6][9]

The historical frame points one way: Cincinnati has already beaten San Jose convincingly in recent meetings, including a 6-0 home win in 2022 and a 4-2 away win in 2024, so any automated model that weights recent head-to-heads would likely classify this matchup as high-variance but not structurally ambiguous. ESPN’s live match page also showed Cincinnati ahead of San Jose in season table terms heading into the game, with 65 points to San Jose’s 41, which is the sort of pre-match state that typically supports decisive pricing in side markets rather than a broad distribution of outcomes. [1][2][3]

For traders running tools, bots or conditional orders, the main catalysts are late squad news, confirmation of the starting XI, and whether the game proceeds on the scheduled broadcast window without disruption. FC Cincinnati’s own preview framed the fixture as part of a Saturday night Apple TV showcase, while San Jose’s preview noted the club was playing its first trip to Cincinnati since TQL Stadium opened, which matters because venue and rest patterns are the sort of metadata often used in programmatic filters and copy-trade rules. If you are scripting against the market, the key dependency is whether any pre-kickoff information changes the live menu before settlement at 23:30 UTC. [6][9][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.