Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Austin FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Austin FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Austin FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Dallas (-1.5) | 0% |
| Austin FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Dallas (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Austin FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Austin FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Dallas O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Austin FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Austin FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Dallas 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Austin FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Dallas 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Austin FC and FC Dallas are scheduled to meet in Major League Soccer on 16 August at 8:30 PM ET, with settlement occurring shortly after the final whistle. The market titled "More Markets" signals that additional betting options—likely including goal totals, player performance metrics, or conditional outcomes—may become available as the fixture approaches. The 0% implied probability reflects either a placeholder state before market activation or genuine uncertainty about whether supplementary markets will materialise before the settlement window closes on 17 August at 00:30 UTC.
Historical precedent suggests MLS fixture markets typically see secondary markets deployed 48–72 hours before kickoff, particularly for rivalry matches or high-profile regional derbies. The Texas Derby carries sufficient commercial weight that sportsbooks and prediction platforms routinely expand their offering beyond standard moneyline and spread bets. However, platform-specific delays—API integration issues, regulatory review, or low anticipated volume—can prevent scheduled markets from launching. Traders using conditional order logic or bot-triggered entry strategies should flag this market as a dependency check: if supplementary markets fail to appear, downstream automated positions may require manual override.
Watch for official MLS fixture confirmations and any team injury announcements in the week preceding the match. Dallas's recent form and Austin's home-field advantage will influence whether secondary markets focus on defensive solidity or attacking output. Platform notifications and fixture-status feeds should be monitored programmatically; a market that remains at 0% probability past 72 hours before kickoff typically signals cancellation or consolidation into existing markets rather than delayed launch.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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