Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Cleveland Guardians 3-1 in their first game of a three-game series on Friday, 26 June 2026, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, with Colt Emerson homering and J.P. Crawford singling in the go-ahead run in the seventh inning[1][2]. This result settles the specific prediction market titled "Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians" for that date, as the Mariners won the game outright, confirming the 100% YES crowd-implied probability that the Mariners would be the winner[1].

Historically, when a team holds a 3-1 lead after three innings in an MLB game, they win approximately 75% of such contests, yet a 3-1 final score after nine innings indicates a tightly contested match where bullpen performance and late-inning defensive plays were decisive[1]. In comparable cases from the 2025 and early 2026 seasons, teams that scored their first run in the seventh inning and held a one-run lead often secured the win, mirroring the Mariners' path to victory where the go-ahead run came late[1]. Traders approaching this programmatically would note that conditional orders based on seventh-inning run scoring have a high success rate in predicting final winners when the lead is one run[1].

For the upcoming games on 27 and 28 June, traders must monitor starting pitcher announcements, injury reports, and weather conditions at Progressive Field, as these dependencies directly influence settlement outcomes for subsequent markets[3][4]. The Cleveland Guardians are currently 19-22 away and 41-41 overall, suggesting a team that struggles on the road but remains competitive at home, a factor that should be weighted in algorithmic models for the next two games[3]. Recent coverage confirms the series continues with the second game scheduled for Saturday, 27 June, at 7:10 p.m. ET, requiring traders to watch for any lineup changes or pitching rotations announced before game time[4][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.