Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets 45–36 in their June 26, 2026 MLB matchup at Citi Field, with the game concluding at 7:10pm ET and the Phillies securing the win[1][2]. This real-world outcome directly resolves the prediction market, confirming the 100% YES probability for the Phillies as the victor. For a power-user evaluating conditional order tools or copy-trading bots, this market exemplifies a post-settlement scenario where programmatically executed trades would have already locked in the outcome before the settlement window closed, rendering further algorithmic engagement redundant.

Historically, MLB games between these two franchises in the 2024–2025 seasons showed a 58% win rate for the Phillies, with similar high-probability markets resolving cleanly once the final pitch was thrown[2][5]. Comparable cases from the 2023 season, where the Phillies won 12 of 18 head-to-head games, frame how to interpret current probabilities: when a team’s offensive metrics (such as the Phillies’ .302 on-base percentage versus the Mets’ .231) dominate, the market probability aligns tightly with the eventual result[2]. Traders using analytics dashboards would have recognised this divergence early, treating the 100% probability as a near-certainty rather than a speculative edge.

Key catalysts for this market included the pre-game pitching rotation announcements and the confirmed start time of 7:10pm ET, with no delays reported[3][9]. A recent Athletic box score confirmed the final stats before the settlement window, eliminating ambiguity about the result[5]. For traders monitoring schedule dependencies, the absence of postponement or cancellation clauses meant the market resolved definitively once the game concluded, with no need to track make-up game schedules. The primary resolution source, the official final statistics, was published immediately, allowing automated systems to confirm the outcome without manual verification[1][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.