Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, played on 26 June 2026 at Petco Park, which concluded with the Padres defeating the Dodgers to take game one of their three-game weekend series[1][2]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for the Dodgers reflects the final outcome where the Padres secured the win, a result programmatically verifiable via official final statistics as the primary resolution source[3]. For a power-user evaluating conditional order tools, this market serves as a clear case study where the settlement window closed on the confirmed result, demonstrating how automated bots can lock in positions once the final score is recognised by the league.

Historically, similar NL West matchups in June often see the Padres capitalise on home-field advantage at Petco Park, particularly in early series games where pitching rotations are freshest[7]. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that when the Padres win the opener of a three-game set, the implied probability for the Dodgers in subsequent games typically shifts, yet the initial 0% probability here aligns with the decisive nature of the Padres' victory[2]. Traders approaching this programmatically should note that past data indicates the Padres' win margin in this specific game was significant enough to trigger certain resolution clauses, reinforcing the reliability of the 0% signal for the Dodgers in the final dataset.

Key catalysts for future NL West games include the remaining schedule for the three-game series, with the next fixtures scheduled for 27 and 28 June, where pitching dependencies and rest days will heavily influence outcomes[7]. A trader monitoring conditional orders should watch for announcements regarding starting pitchers for the upcoming games, as recent news highlights the Padres' strong performance in the opener as a potential momentum driver for the rest of the series[2]. The settlement window ending on 4 July 2026 provides ample time for the series to conclude, ensuring that any postponed games are resolved before the final deadline, a dependency that automated systems must account for when executing copy-trading strategies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.