Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Major League Baseball game between the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers, played on 25 June 2026 at 6:40 PM ET, which the Astros won 2–1. This result is now confirmed in the official final statistics, making the market’s 100% YES probability for the Astros a factual certainty rather than a speculative forecast[1][8].

Historically, markets showing 100% probability after a game’s completion are resolved immediately, with no delay for conditional orders or copy-trading bots, as the outcome is already settled in the governing body’s records. Comparable cases from recent MLB seasons show that once the final score is verified, resolution occurs within minutes, rendering any pending conditional strategies obsolete[1][2]. Traders evaluating tooling should note that post-game markets with confirmed outcomes do not support live execution; the utility of bots or copy-trading platforms ends once the result is public.

Key catalysts for similar pre-game markets include starting pitcher announcements, injury reports, and weather dependencies, all of which can shift odds significantly before play begins. For this matchup, pre-game analysis from Gooners Guide initially favoured the Tigers 4–3, highlighting how early predictions can diverge sharply from final results[3]. However, with the game now completed and the score confirmed, no further catalysts apply. The settlement window ending 2026-07-02 is irrelevant here, as resolution is immediate upon verification of the final score[1]. Programmatic approaches must account for this immediacy: any system waiting for settlement confirmation will miss the window, as the market resolves instantly once the official result is published.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.