Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
23% | 77% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
23% | 77% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 23% |
| Yordan Alvarez | 7% |
| Otto Lopez | 6% |
| Yandy Díaz | 5% |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3% |
| Aaron Judge | 1% |
| George Springer | 1% |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1% |
| Freddie Freeman | 1% |
| Alec Burleson | 1% |
| Andy Pages | 1% |
| CJ Abrams | 1% |
| Jordan Walker | 1% |
| Sal Stewart | 1% |
| Bo Bichette | 0% |
| Jacob Wilson | 0% |
| Jeremy Peña | 0% |
| Trea Turner | 0% |
| Nico Hoerner | 0% |
| Josh Naylor | 0% |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0% |
| Wilyer Abreu | 0% |
| Mauricio Dubón | 0% |
| Ben Rice | 0% |
| Shea Langeliers | 0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 0% |
| Brandon Nimmo | 0% |
| Oneil Cruz | 0% |
| Corbin Carroll | 0% |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0% |
| Riley Greene | 0% |
| Player B | 0% |
| Player C | 0% |
| Player D | 0% |
| Player E | 0% |
| Player F | 0% |
| Player G | 0% |
| Player H | 0% |
| Player I | 0% |
| Player J | 0% |
| Player K | 0% |
| Player L | 0% |
| Player M | 0% |
| Player N | 0% |
| Player O | 0% |
| Player P | 0% |
| Player Q | 0% |
| Player R | 0% |
| Player S | 0% |
| Player T | 0% |
| Player U | 0% |
| Player V | 0% |
| Player W | 0% |
| Player X | 0% |
| Player Y | 0% |
| Player Z | 0% |
| Player AA | 0% |
| Player AB | 0% |
| Player AC | 0% |
| Player AD | 0% |
| Player AE | 0% |
| Player AF | 0% |
| Player AG | 0% |
| Player AH | 0% |
| Player AI | 0% |
| Player AJ | 0% |
| Player AK | 0% |
| Player AL | 0% |
| Player AM | 0% |
| Player AN | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 23% YES probability for MLB: Batting Average Leader. This market will resolve according to the player who records the highest batting average among qualified players during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this mark…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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