Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Club Tijuana O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Tijuana O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Tijuana 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Tijuana 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Tijuana (-1.5) | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul (-1.5) | 0% |
| Club Tijuana (-2.5) | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Club Tijuana O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Club Tijuana 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Club Tijuana 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Club Tijuana will host CF Cruz Azul in a Liga MX regular-season fixture on 16 August at 23:00 ET. The match falls within Mexico's domestic league calendar and carries standard three-point stakes. Settlement occurs at 03:00 UTC on 17 August, allowing roughly four hours post-match for official confirmation and any protest resolution through Liga MX's standard protocols.
The 0% implied probability reflects either minimal trading activity or a market structure where this particular outcome has received no backing. Historically, Liga MX markets show thin liquidity in secondary or derivative markets—those bundling multiple match conditions—compared to outright win/draw/loss contracts. Tijuana's home record and Cruz Azul's recent form would normally anchor baseline expectations, but the absence of any YES position suggests traders are either waiting for price discovery on related markets or treating this as a conditional instrument dependent on earlier-round results or specific match circumstances not yet clarified in the market description.
Traders using algorithmic monitoring should flag the Liga MX fixture list for any schedule changes or postponements, which occasionally occur due to weather or administrative reasons in Mexican football. Cross-referencing with official Liga MX communications and team injury bulletins in the 48 hours before kickoff will inform whether conditional logic (such as missing key players) should trigger position adjustments. The settlement window's tight four-hour window post-match means automated settlement verification against Liga MX's official scoreline is essential; manual review carries execution risk.
Methodology
This page reviews Club Tijuana vs. CF Cruz Azul - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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