Club Puebla vs. CD Guadalajara - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

Club Puebla meet CD Guadalajara in Liga MX, and the exact-score market is priced at a low **5% YES**, which is consistent with a narrow set of scorelines rather than a broad goal-heavy script. Recent head-to-head data point to Guadalajara having the better record overall, but not by a margin that removes draw and low-scoring Puebla outcomes from the mix; several historical summaries show Guadalajara ahead on wins while the matchup still produces a meaningful share of stalemates and one-goal games.[4][9][16]

For exact-score traders, the useful way to read this market programmatically is to treat it as a sparse outcome tree: model the listed scoreline set first, then assign residual weight to **Any Other Score**, because the market only settles on the 90-minute result plus stoppage time.[1] Recent fixture data also show Guadalajara’s away profile has been more competitive than Puebla’s broader form, while Puebla’s home results have not been strong enough to justify aggressive support for high-scoring home wins.[6][10] The most relevant catalyst is late team-news and match completion risk: line-up announcements, any postponement or abandonment, and whether the game reaches a final whistle before the settlement window closes remain the operational dependencies.[1][2] Player availability matters because the live scoring mix in recent Guadalajara–Puebla meetings has been tight enough that one enforced change can shift the most likely exact scores more than the broader match-winner view.[17][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.