Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Pumas de la UNAM O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pumas de la UNAM O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Pumas de la UNAM 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pumas de la UNAM 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Pumas de la UNAM O/U 2.5 | 99% |
| Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5) | 86% |
| O/U 3.5 | 85% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| FC Juárez O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 62% |
| Pumas de la UNAM (-2.5) | 61% |
| O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC Juárez 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Juárez 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pumas de la UNAM 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pumas de la UNAM 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| FC Juárez O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| FC Juárez 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 13% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 11% |
| FC Juárez O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| FC Juárez 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Juárez (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Juárez (-2.5) | 0% |
Market context
FC Juárez meet Pumas de la UNAM in a Liga MX match on 31 July, and the current **0% YES** price on the “More Markets” market implies the crowd is effectively treating an additional market outcome as unavailable or virtually impossible within the settlement window. For a programme-driven trader, that usually means the first check is not football form but product logic: whether the exchange has actually listed further sub-markets, whether the market is still accepting orders, and whether any proposed conditions can still be triggered before 03:00 UTC on 1 August.
Historically, this fixture has produced mixed but often tight results, which matters if “more markets” is being interpreted as anything tied to late-game volatility rather than a specific team result. Across recent head-to-head data, Pumas have had the edge overall, while Juárez have still taken occasional wins and the common scoreline in longer samples has been 1-1. Recent meetings have also swung both ways: Juárez won 3-1 in September 2025, but Pumas responded with a 4-2 win in April 2026, a reminder that the series can move quickly when line-ups or game state shift.[2][3][4][18][20]
The main catalysts to watch are team-news and match-centred dependencies rather than broader macro factors. Line-ups, late injury updates, suspension confirmations, and any schedule changes are the practical triggers for automated orders or copy-trading rules, because they can alter whether a “more markets” product becomes meaningful at all before settlement. Live score providers had the fixture listed for 31 July, but match pages showed limited data pre-kick-off, so a trader running conditional logic would typically watch for official line-up publication, market creation timestamps, and any odds feed updates close to kick-off.[1][15][16]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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