Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 80% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 80% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 79% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 72% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 55% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 55% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Game 4 Winner | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 49% |
| Game 2 Winner | 48% |
| Game 3 Winner | 48% |
| Game 1 Winner | 47% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 47% |
| Match Winner | 46% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 39% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 36% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 36% |
| Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 34% |
| Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) | 32% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 17% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 16% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 16% |
| Game Handicap: MKOI (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 16% |
| Game Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Movistar KOI (+2.5) | 13% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 12% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 12% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 12% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 80% probability to lol: team vitality vs movistar koi (bo5) - lec playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Team Vitality and Movistar KOI in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
We track LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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