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LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Comparison of odds and platforms for "LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Kalshi Fees.

Match Winner 94% Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) 85% Game 1 Winner 82% Game 2 Winner 82% Volume: $236K Liquidity: $386K Closes: 1 Jul 2026
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LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 94% 6% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 94% 6% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner94%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)85%
Game 1 Winner82%
Game 2 Winner82%
Game 3 Winner82%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?76%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Game 4 Winner65%
First Blood in Game 1?63%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?55%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Odd/Even Total Kills48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon45%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon45%
O/U 3.5 Games43%
Odd/Even Total Kills41%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?40%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Quadra Kill27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor26%
O/U 4.5 Games13%
Any Player Penta Kill8%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: t1 vs team liquid (bo5) - mid-season invitational play-in stands at 94% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between T1 and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for July 1 at 4:00AM ET. This market will re…

Methodology

We track LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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