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LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Comparison of odds and platforms for "LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Kalshi Fees.

Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? 100% Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) 67% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 54% Odd/Even Total Kills 52% Volume: $684K Liquidity: $1.3M Closes: 7 Sept 2026
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LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?100%
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)67%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon54%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
First Blood in Game 2?52%
First Blood in Game 1?52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?51%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?44%
Game 2 Winner34%
O/U 2.5 Games33%
Match Winner16%
Game Handicap: SR (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5)1%
Game 1 Winner0%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of lol: shopify rebellion vs flyquest (bo3) - lcs regular season. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between Shopify Rebellion and FlyQuest in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will res…

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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