Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 85% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 85% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 59% |
| Match Winner | 56% |
| Game 1 Winner | 54% |
| Game 2 Winner | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 48% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 45% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 33% |
| Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) | 28% |
| Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) | 24% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 13% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 13% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 9% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 9% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: movistar koi vs natus vincere (bo3) - lec regular season stands at 85% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL match between Movistar KOI and Natus Vincere in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 16 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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