Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 72% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 58% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 55% |
| Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 46% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 45% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 44% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 44% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 44% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 44% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Game 2 Winner | 40% |
| Game 3 Winner | 40% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 40% |
| Game 1 Winner | 39% |
| Game 4 Winner | 39% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 33% |
| Match Winner | 30% |
| Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Market consensus: 72% chance of lol: karmine corp vs dplus kia (bo5) - esports world cup playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Karmine Corp and Dplus KIA in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 19 at 8:30AM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade LoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - Esports World… on Kalshi Fees
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