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LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 65% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 65% Any Player Penta Kill 52% Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor 51% Volume: $82K Liquidity: $118K Closes: 23 Jul 2026
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LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
65% 35% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
65% 35% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon65%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon65%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
First Blood in Game 1?51%
O/U 2.5 Games50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
First Blood in Game 2?49%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?49%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?49%
Match Winner46%
Game 2 Winner44%
Game 1 Winner43%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon42%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)29%
Any Player Quadra Kill29%
Any Player Quadra Kill29%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 65% YES probability for LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend. This market refers to the LoL match between JD Gaming and Anyone's Legend in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 23 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming w…

Methodology

We track LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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