Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
FURIA Esports and RED Canids are scheduled to contest a best-of-three League of Legends match within the CBLOL (Campeonato Brasileiro de League of Legends) regular season on 15 August at 12:00 PM ET. The match settlement window closes at 22:00 UTC the same day, allowing approximately ten hours from scheduled start time for the fixture to conclude and resolve. Resolution hinges on match completion: a FURIA victory settles YES, a RED Canids victory settles NO, whilst cancellation, ties, or delays exceeding seven days without determination trigger a 50-50 split.
The 100% crowd probability reflects FURIA's established standing within CBLOL. Historically, FURIA has maintained top-four positioning across recent seasons, whilst RED Canids operate as a mid-table competitor. When crowd-implied odds reach extremes in regional esports markets, the primary risk vector centres on fixture non-completion rather than upset outcomes. CBLOL scheduling has proven reliable; cancellations remain rare, though technical pauses during matches occasionally compress timelines. For conditional order automation, traders should flag the seven-day delay clause as the critical settlement boundary—matches that begin but stall beyond that threshold resolve 50-50 regardless of in-game state.
Programmatic monitoring should track CBLOL's official schedule announcements and broadcast status pages. RED Canids roster changes or player availability announcements in the 48 hours preceding match time could shift underlying match dynamics, though such shifts rarely move crowd odds at this probability extreme. The tight settlement window (ten hours) means fixture postponement becomes the operative risk; automated alerts on official CBLOL channels provide earliest notification of rescheduling.
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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