Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
67% | 33% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
67% | 33% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 67% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | 55% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 48% |
| Game 4 Winner | 42% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 40% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 40% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 39% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 38% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 38% |
| Game 2 Winner | 37% |
| Game 1 Winner | 36% |
| Game 3 Winner | 36% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 31% |
| Match Winner | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Game Handicap: NIP (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: edward gaming vs ninjas in pyjamas (bo5) - lpl knights rivals stands at 67% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL match between EDward Gaming and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the LPL Knights Rivals, initially scheduled for August 28, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL … on Kalshi Fees
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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