Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
66% | 34% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
66% | 34% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 66% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 64% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | 63% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 45% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 39% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 37% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 31% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Game 2 Winner | 23% |
| Game 1 Winner | 22% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 16% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 16% |
| Match Winner | 14% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 13% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 13% |
Market context
Market consensus: 66% chance of lol: edward gaming vs bilibili gaming (bo3) - lpl group ascend. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between EDward Gaming and Bilibili Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 24 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "E…
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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