Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Charlotte FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Charlotte FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlas FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Atlas FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Atlas FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Charlotte FC O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Charlotte FC (-1.5) | 16% |
| Both Teams to Score | 16% |
| Atlas FC O/U 0.5 | 16% |
| O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| Charlotte FC O/U 2.5 | 2% |
| Atlas FC (-1.5) | 1% |
| Charlotte FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 3.5 | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Atlas FC O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Charlotte FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Atlas FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Charlotte FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Atlas FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Atlas FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Charlotte FC’s Leagues Cup tie with Atlas FC is the underlying event, and the market’s 16% YES price implies traders are treating the “More markets” basket as a low-probability add-on rather than a routine outcome. That framing fits a programmatic approach: if you are wiring alerts or conditional orders, you would usually key off line-up release, live market expansion, or the appearance of extra derivative props rather than the match result itself.
Comparable cases suggest the main signal is how much pre-match depth the books and exchange offer on secondary markets once teams are announced. Charlotte arrived in stronger recent form, beating Pumas 3-0 after earlier league wins, while Atlas came off a 3-1 loss to Columbus and had also lost 0-2 to Monterrey[1][13]. In a tool-driven workflow, that sort of form gap matters less than whether the contest stays live enough for extra markets to be posted; if the event is one-sided early, automated copy-trading or bot logic often sees fewer viable in-play derivatives than a tighter match would generate.
The catalysts to watch are the scheduled kick-off at 7:30 PM ET, the published match feed, and any late team-news that changes the number or depth of tradable sub-markets before settlement at 23:30 UTC[1][6]. ESPN listed the match with Charlotte at -105 and showed Charlotte averaging 3.00 goals to Atlas’s 1.00 going in, which supports a relatively active pricing surface if the game opens up[4]. For a power user, the practical trigger is not just the match start: it is whether the platform exposes additional markets before or during play, because that determines whether orders can be staged, copied, or cancelled around each new contract set[3][12].
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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