Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo | 0% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to itf tianjin: ku keon kang vs toshiki karigyo. This market refers to the tennis match between Ku Keon Kang and Toshiki Karigyo in the ITF Men Tianjin, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 12:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ku Keon Kan…
Methodology
We track ITF Tianjin: Ku Keon Kang vs Toshiki Karigyo across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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