Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald | 16% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to itf w35 bistrita women: ilinca amariei vs weronika ewald. This market refers to the tennis match between Ilinca Amariei and Weronika Ewald in the ITF W35 Bistrita Women, originally scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ili…
Methodology
This page reviews ITF W35 Bistrita Women: Ilinca Amariei vs Weronika Ewald across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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