Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 92% |
| Lille OSC O/U 0.5 | 77% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 77% |
| O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Toulouse FC O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Lille OSC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score | 53% |
| Lille OSC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Toulouse FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Lille OSC O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Toulouse FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Toulouse FC O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Toulouse FC 1st Half (-1.5) | 28% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 27% |
| O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Lille OSC 1st Half (-1.5) | 22% |
| Lille OSC (-1.5) | 20% |
| Lille OSC 2nd Half (-1.5) | 20% |
| Lille OSC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Lille OSC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 17% |
| Lille OSC O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Toulouse FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Toulouse FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Toulouse FC 2nd Half (-1.5) | 11% |
| Toulouse FC (-1.5) | 10% |
| Toulouse FC O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Lille OSC (-2.5) | 8% |
| Lille OSC 2nd Half (-2.5) | 8% |
| Lille OSC 1st Half (-2.5) | 7% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Toulouse FC (-2.5) | 3% |
| Toulouse FC 1st Half (-2.5) | 3% |
| Toulouse FC 2nd Half (-2.5) | 3% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 92% YES probability for Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC - More Markets. More markets for the Ligue 1 game, scheduled for September 3 at 2:45 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC - More Markets on Kalshi Fees
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →