Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| IF Gnistan O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IF Gnistan O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IF Gnistan O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Tampereen Ilves O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tampereen Ilves O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IF Gnistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IF Gnistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Tampereen Ilves 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tampereen Ilves 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IF Gnistan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| Tampereen Ilves 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| IF Gnistan (-1.5) | 0% |
| Tampereen Ilves (-1.5) | 0% |
| IF Gnistan (-2.5) | 0% |
| Tampereen Ilves (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Tampereen Ilves O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| IF Gnistan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tampereen Ilves 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
Market context
Gnistan and Tampereen Ilves will meet in the Finnish top-flight Veikkausliiga on 17 August at 16:00 local time (11:00 AM ET). The market flags additional betting opportunities beyond standard match outcomes—likely including goal-line markets, player performance props, or in-play conditional orders. Settlement occurs immediately after the final whistle, making this a straightforward fixture for automation: a trader can chain this market to downstream bets on league standings or accumulator chains without settlement lag.
The 0% implied probability suggests the market has not yet opened to meaningful liquidity or that the underlying event carries genuine uncertainty that hasn't resolved into price discovery. Comparable Veikkausliiga fixtures typically see modest trading volumes outside peak betting windows; early-season matches in August often attract lighter participation than autumn derbies. Historical patterns show that "more markets" sub-markets—particularly those dependent on match outcome—often remain thin until 48 hours before kickoff, when syndicates and sharp bettors activate conditional order flows.
Key catalysts include team news releases, injury confirmations, and any late fixture changes. Gnistan and Ilves' recent league form, available via the official Veikkausliiga website and Finnish sports press, will drive line movement once traders begin building models. A power-user approach would monitor both clubs' social media and official channels for squad announcements, then programme conditional triggers: if a key player is ruled out, recalibrate position sizing or hedge via correlated markets. Settlement timing is firm, making this suitable for bot-driven execution once liquidity emerges.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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