Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| England O/U 0.5 | 83% |
| O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 77% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| Norway O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score | 56% |
| England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 55% |
| O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| England O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| England 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| England 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Team to Advance | 36% |
| Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Norway O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 31% |
| England (-1.5) | 28% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 27% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| England O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 20% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 20% |
| O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| England (-2.5) | 12% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Norway O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Norway (-1.5) | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| England (-3.5) | 6% |
| England (-4.5) | 6% |
| O/U 6.5 | 6% |
| O/U 8.5 | 6% |
| Norway (-2.5) | 3% |
| Norway (-3.5) | 3% |
| Norway (-4.5) | 1% |
| Norway (-5.5) | 1% |
| England (-5.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 93% probability to norway vs. england - more markets. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 11 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Norway vs. England - More Markets on Kalshi Fees
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