Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior (-1.5) | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SBV Excelsior 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| SBV Excelsior 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (-1.5) | 0% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
SC Cambuur host SBV Excelsior in the Eredivisie opener, and the current crowd-implied **0% YES** for “more markets” reads as a pricing artefact rather than a football view. On a market like this, power users would usually treat the contract as a basket of still-unspecified contingencies around the match, then wire alerts to the fixture feed, lineup posts and market-rule changes; if the exchange has not listed the extra markets yet, a near-zero price can simply reflect absence of tradable sub-markets rather than a forecast of none being posted.
Comparable meetings suggest the underlying game itself is not especially exotic: Cambuur and Excelsior have produced a mixed head-to-head record, with FootyStats showing Cambuur on 8 wins, Excelsior on 5, and 2 draws across 15 meetings, while recent previews point to a competitive opener rather than a one-sided mismatch.[13][15] Sports Mole also frames the match as a season-opening top-flight contest and expects goals, which matters for how traders model derivatives such as cards, corners, both teams to score, or total-goals ladders.[3]
The practical catalysts are procedural: whether the exchange publishes additional markets, whether line-ups confirm full-strength attacks, and whether any late schedule or team-news update shifts the derivative menu before settlement. Sofascore and ESPN both list the fixture as the opening round, which is useful for automation because first-match-round games often see more pre-kickoff market creation and faster repricing once official squads land.[5][16]
Methodology
This page reviews SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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