Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| LDU Quito O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| LDU Quito O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Delfin SC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| LDU Quito 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| LDU Quito 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Delfin SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| LDU Quito (-1.5) | 0% |
| Delfin SC (-1.5) | 0% |
| LDU Quito (-2.5) | 0% |
| Delfin SC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| LDU Quito O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Delfin SC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Delfin SC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| LDU Quito 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| LDU Quito 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Delfin SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Delfin SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Delfin SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
LDU Quito and Delfín SC are due to meet in LigaPro Primera A, and the “more markets” contract here is really a trading wrapper around the match’s ancillary event set rather than the result line itself. For a programme or bot, the key is that settlement depends on what the exchange classifies as additional match markets, so the first check is the event’s market inventory, start timestamp, and whether any listed props are voided, postponed or rolled into the next day’s fixture logic. [14][15]
Historically, this pairing has not been one-sided enough to justify a very tight prior. Head-to-head records across recent databases show a near-even split over roughly 29–30 meetings, with LDU and Delfín each winning about 10–11 times and draws landing in the high single digits, while recent meetings have also swung heavily by venue, including LDU’s 3–0 home win in March 2025 and 4–0 away win in July 2025. That sort of profile usually argues for a low-confidence prior on any extra-market bundle unless the market definition is unusually specific. [1][8][18]
For a trader using conditional orders, the practical catalysts are line-up release, late injury or rotation news, and any schedule changes that affect whether the match is played as listed; those inputs can move prop pricing more than the underlying 0% crowd-implied starting point suggests. With no confirmed pre-match news in the sources here, the safest programmatic approach is to watch the official match page and live-score feeds for status changes, then let the market definition determine whether “more markets” expands to cards, corners, player props, or other derivative listings before the settlement window closes. [4][5][14]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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