Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World C…

Name: Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival
Start: 2026-07-15T07:33:20.915Z
End: 2026-07-15T20:05:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Place a position →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Place a position →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Place a position →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Place a position →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Game 1 Winner	100%
O/U 2.5 Games	100%
Any Player Ultra Kill	99%
First Blood in Game 1?	90%
Ends in Daytime	90%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1?	90%
Match Winner	67%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3?	54%
First Blood in Game 2?	50%
First Blood in Game 3?	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	10%
Ends in Daytime	10%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	10%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?	10%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?	10%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2?	10%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	5%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?	3%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?	1%
Any Player Ultra Kill	1%
Any Player Rampage	1%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?	1%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?	1%
Game 2 Winner	0%
Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)	0%
Any Player Rampage	0%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?	0%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of dota 2: 1win vs vici gaming (bo3) - esports world cup survival. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 2 match between 1win and Vici Gaming in the Esports World Cup Survival, initially scheduled for July 15 at 10:30AM ET. This market will reso…

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?: Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?: Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?: Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cu… on Kalshi Fees

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Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cu… on Kalshi Fees

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