Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| AC Horsens 0 - 2 Brøndby IF | 100% |
| AC Horsens 0 - 0 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 0 - 1 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 1 - 0 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 1 - 1 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 2 - 0 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 0 - 3 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 1 - 2 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 2 - 1 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 3 - 0 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 1 - 3 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 2 - 2 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 3 - 1 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 2 - 3 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 3 - 2 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| AC Horsens 3 - 3 Brøndby IF | 0% |
| Any Other Score | 0% |
Market context
AC Horsens’ meeting with Brøndby IF is a Danish Superliga fixture and the exact-score market will settle on the 90-minute result only, so any extra-time or penalties are irrelevant here. The crowd-implied 0% YES price is consistent with a market that has already been effectively ruled out by the reported final scoreline of 0–2 in Brøndby’s favour, which is one of the listed exact-score outcomes on score feeds for the match.[8][13]
Historically, this is not a one-sided pairing in every sense, but Brøndby have had the clearer edge. Across recent head-to-head data, Brøndby are shown as leading the series, with FootyStats recording 9 wins to Horsens’ 3 over the last 15 meetings, while other aggregators place the all-time split around 10 Brøndby wins, 8 Horsens wins and 5 draws depending on the sample used.[1][2] The scorelines themselves tend to be compact rather than chaotic, with common outcomes such as 2–0, 2–1 and 1–2 appearing repeatedly in the record, which is useful when programmatically mapping likely exact-score buckets rather than relying only on win/draw direction.[1][11]
For a trader using tooling, the key catalysts are simple: confirm the official final whistle, watch for any schedule disruption, and verify whether the market’s settlement logic is tied to the completed 90-minute score or to a postponed fixture that could remain open until played. In practice, conditional orders and bot logic should be anchored to live match state and official status updates, because the only material risk here is operational — cancellation, postponement or a match completion that differs from the quoted score feed. The available match preview sources already reflect the same 0–2 result, so an automated workflow would typically treat the event as settled once the organiser’s result is final.[8][13]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Trade AC Horsens vs. Brøndby IF - Exact Score on Kalshi Fees
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