Test Series England vs India, Women: England vs India

Platform comparison

Market context

The women’s Test between England and India at Lord’s on 10 July 2026 is the sole fixture in this series, with the match already concluded as of today. Historical data from the same tour shows England won the 3-match series 2–1, though that series included ODIs and not Tests; the only Test at Lord’s ended with India setting England a target of 427 after Yastika Bhatia scored 119, the first women’s Test century at the venue [1][6]. Despite India’s strong first innings, England ultimately secured the series win, suggesting that a 2% YES probability for India winning this specific Test aligns with the broader series outcome where England held the advantage.

For a programmatic trader, the key dependency is the official result published by ESPNcricinfo, which serves as the settlement source [1]. Catalysts to monitor include any post-match rulings on DLS, DRS, or forfeits, as these are treated as ordinary wins per the market rules. Since the match dates (10–13 July) have passed and results are available, the 2% probability likely reflects a confirmed England win rather than uncertainty. Traders using conditional orders or copy-trading bots should verify the final scoreline on espncricinfo.com before executing, as the market is effectively settled and liquidity may be thin [1][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.