Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas

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Market context

Washington Freedom and Seattle Orcas are set to face each other in a Major League Cricket match on 25 June 2026, with the crowd-implied probability of Washington winning currently at 0%. This stark figure reflects Seattle’s dominant recent form against the Freedom, having secured five-wicket victories in their last two encounters, including the season opener in Grand Prairie and a subsequent win in Oakland [2][3]. In both matches, Seattle’s batters outperformed Washington, while their bowlers, notably Ottneil Baartman, delivered critical breakthroughs that prevented Washington from reaching match-winning totals [1][5].

For a programmatic trader, this market should be approached by monitoring Seattle’s batting strike rates and Baartman’s wicket-taking consistency, as these have been the primary catalysts in their prior successes. Key dependencies include official team announcements, pitch reports, and any weather-related delays that could alter playing conditions. Recent commentary from Cricbuzz confirms Seattle’s 219/5 scoreline in their last match, underscoring their batting depth [4]. Traders should also track live updates from ESPN’s match insights page for real-time performance metrics that could shift conditional order strategies [1].

The 0% probability is not an arbitrary outlier but a data-driven reflection of Seattle’s consistent superiority in this fixture. Historical head-to-head records show Seattle winning all three games played so far this season, reinforcing the market’s current stance [4][7]. Any shift in this probability would likely stem from unexpected team changes or external rulings, such as over-rate penalties or forfeits, which are treated as ordinary wins under the competition’s rules. Traders evaluating conditional orders should weigh these variables against Seattle’s proven resilience and batting firepower.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.