Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| AD Cali (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AD Cali O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AD Cali O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AD Cali 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AD Cali 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Jaguares de Córdoba FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| AD Cali (-2.5) | 0% |
| Jaguares de Córdoba FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AD Cali O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Jaguares de Córdoba FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Jaguares de Córdoba FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Jaguares de Córdoba FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AD Cali 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| AD Cali 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Jaguares de Córdoba FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Jaguares de Córdoba FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Jaguares de Córdoba FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Jaguares de Córdoba FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Atlético Huila (AD Cali) will face Jaguares de Córdoba FC in Colombia's top division on 24 July at 21:15 ET. The market's 100% implied probability reflects confidence that additional betting markets will be offered for this fixture—a routine expectation for domestic league matches in the Colombian Primera A, where liquidity and market depth typically expand as match day approaches. Settlement occurs just after the scheduled kick-off window closes, meaning the resolution hinges on whether supplementary markets (goal-scorer props, corner counts, card markets, or half-time outcomes) materialise rather than on the match result itself.
Historical precedent shows that Colombian Primera A fixtures consistently generate secondary markets within 48 hours of kick-off, particularly for clubs with established supporter bases. Atlético Huila and Jaguares de Córdoba both maintain regular fixture schedules with predictable market coverage. The 100% probability reflects this institutional pattern rather than any exceptional circumstance; markets for lower-tier Colombian clubs occasionally see delayed or limited secondary offerings, but both sides here have sufficient commercial visibility to trigger the standard market expansion.
Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track official league announcements and sportsbook feeds for confirmation of available markets by 23 July. Conditional order logic can be structured to execute secondary bets only once the "more markets" condition resolves affirmatively. The settlement window's tight 75-minute window post-kick-off means automated systems should verify market availability well before that deadline to avoid execution failures.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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