Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| PAOK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SK Brann O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| PAOK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SK Brann 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| PAOK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| SK Brann 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| PAOK (-1.5) | 0% |
| SK Brann (-1.5) | 0% |
| PAOK (-2.5) | 0% |
| SK Brann (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PAOK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PAOK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SK Brann O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Brann O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PAOK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PAOK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Brann 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SK Brann 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
PAOK and SK Brann will contest a UEFA Europa Conference League qualifying match on 20 August at 1:45 PM ET. The fixture is a two-legged tie; this particular game represents either the first or second leg depending on which club drew the earlier round. The 0% crowd probability on "More Markets" reflects that this market category—typically covering ancillary betting options beyond standard win/draw/loss outcomes—has not yet been populated with specific settlement criteria or odds-eligible outcomes by the market operator.
Historical precedent suggests that Europa Conference League qualifying ties generate modest trading volume until official market specifications are published. In comparable Kalshi markets covering lower-tier European competitions, crowd probabilities remain near zero until broadcasters confirm fixture details and bookmakers release correlated lines. The Greek Super League champion PAOK enters as the likely favourite given their domestic pedigree, whilst Norwegian Eliteserien side Brann will seek an upset. Traders employing conditional order logic should monitor whether the market operator publishes sub-markets (e.g., total goals, both teams to score, first goalscorer) in the week preceding settlement.
Key catalysts include official team news releases regarding squad availability, pitch conditions at the designated venue, and confirmation of which leg this constitutes. Programmatic traders should set alerts for Kalshi's market specification updates and cross-reference UEFA's official fixture calendar. Weather forecasts for the match location and any late injury announcements will influence algorithmic position-sizing closer to kick-off. Settlement hinges entirely on how the operator defines "More Markets"—clarification of eligible outcomes is essential before deploying capital.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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