Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC København O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC København O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Debreceni VSC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC København 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC København 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Debreceni VSC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| O/U 3.5 | 73% |
| FC København O/U 2.5 | 72% |
| FC København (-1.5) | 60% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| FC København 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Debreceni VSC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Debreceni VSC O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| FC København (-2.5) | 18% |
| O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Debreceni VSC O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| Debreceni VSC (-1.5) | 2% |
| Debreceni VSC (-2.5) | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC København 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Debreceni VSC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Debreceni VSC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC København will face Debreceni VSC in a UEFA Europa Conference League qualifying match on 12 August 2026. The fixture is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET, with settlement occurring at 16:00 UTC the same day. This is a two-legged tie, and the "More Markets" designation indicates secondary or derivative betting options beyond standard match outcomes—likely including aggregate score, away goals rule resolution, or penalty shootout contingencies.
The 100% implied probability reflects near-certainty that additional markets will be offered for this fixture. Historical precedent supports this: UEFA Europa Conference League qualifying rounds consistently generate multiple derivative markets across major platforms, particularly when both clubs are established European sides. København, a Danish Super Liga regular, and Debrecen, a Hungarian powerhouse, both command sufficient liquidity to justify expanded market offerings. Comparable qualifying matches from the 2024–25 Conference League season saw secondary markets materialise within hours of primary market settlement, suggesting the infrastructure and demand exist here.
Traders monitoring this market should track official UEFA fixture confirmations and any schedule adjustments announced via UEFA.com or the clubs' official channels. Programmatic approaches—conditional orders triggered by market-creation events or time-based automation—become relevant if you're arbitraging between primary and derivative markets. The settlement window closes before typical evening kickoff times in Western Europe, so any delays or postponements announced after 16:00 UTC would affect resolution. Monitor both clubs' injury bulletins and squad announcements in the week preceding the match, as these often correlate with market expansion and repricing across linked outcomes.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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