Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -2.5 | 96% |
| Spread -3.5 | 95% |
| Spread -4.5 | 94% |
| Spread -5.5 | 94% |
| Spread -6.5 | 92% |
| Spread -7.5 | 91% |
| O/U 30.5 | 89% |
| Spread -10.5 | 86% |
| Spread -13.5 | 83% |
| O/U 31.5 | 83% |
| O/U 33.5 | 83% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 82% |
| Spread -14.5 | 80% |
| O/U 32.5 | 79% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 79% |
| Spread -16.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 78% |
| Spread: Washington (-22.5) | 76% |
| O/U 36.5 | 76% |
| O/U 34.5 | 75% |
| O/U 35.5 | 74% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 74% |
| Spread -17.5 | 71% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 69% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 68% |
| Washington O/U 33.5 | 66% |
| Spread -20.5 | 64% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 64% |
| Washington O/U 30.5 | 64% |
| Spread -8.5 | 61% |
| Washington State O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 59% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 59% |
| Spread -21.5 | 57% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 57% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| Spread -23.5 | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| Washington O/U 34.5 | 53% |
| Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Washington O/U 36.5 | 51% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| Washington 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Washington 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Washington 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Demond Williams Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Quaid Carr: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dezmen Roebuck: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Limar: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Rashid Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kirby Vorhees: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Christian Moss: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Trey Cooley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Caden Pinnick: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Decker DeGraaf: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tony Freeman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Maxwell Woods: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Darrius Clemons: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tank Hawkins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Leo Pulalasi: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Dees: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Lawson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Daniel Blood: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jack Pedersen: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| Washington O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Washington State O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Washington O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Washington State O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Washington O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 45% |
| O/U 44.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| Spread -27.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 41% |
| Washington O/U 37.5 | 39% |
| O/U 46.5 | 38% |
| Washington O/U 39.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 35% |
| O/U 48.5 | 33% |
| Washington State O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 50.5 | 26% |
| Washington State O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| Washington State O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| Washington State O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| O/U 52.5 | 21% |
| O/U 51.5 | 20% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| O/U 56.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 9% |
| O/U 66.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Washington State vs. Washington | 4% |
| O/U 70.5 | 3% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, washington state vs. washington stands at 96% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 6 at 4:00PM ET: If Washington State wins, the market will resolve to "Washington State". If Washington wins, the mark…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $458K.
Methodology
We track Washington State vs. Washington across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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