Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 39.5 | 98% |
| UCLA vs. California | 88% |
| O/U 45.5 | 86% |
| O/U 33.5 | 85% |
| O/U 51.5 | 79% |
| Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| Spread: UCLA (-1.5) | 72% |
| Spread -4.5 | 70% |
| Spread -7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 53.5 | 69% |
| Spread -5.5 | 69% |
| Spread -6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 55.5 | 68% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| O/U 57.5 | 63% |
| Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| California 1H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| California O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Adam Mohammed: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nico Iamaleava: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Wayne Knight: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ian Strong: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chase Hendricks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaivian Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ashten Emory: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Anthony Woods: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brian Rowe Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Landon Ellis: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carter Vargas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mikey Matthews: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Leland Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mason Mini: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dorian Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cooper Perry: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brayden Loftin: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josh Phifer: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Semaj Morgan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan King: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| Spread -24.5 | 49% |
| Spread -31.5 | 49% |
| Spread -34.5 | 49% |
| Spread -20.5 | 48% |
| Spread -13.5 | 43% |
| O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Spread -14.5 | 32% |
| Spread -16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 69.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 98% probability to ucla vs. california. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 10:30PM ET: If UCLA wins, the market will resolve to "UCLA". If California wins, the market will resolve to "California". If the gam…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $186K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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