Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 33.5 | 93% |
| O/U 35.5 | 89% |
| O/U 37.5 | 88% |
| O/U 39.5 | 84% |
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| Florida State O/U 18.5 | 78% |
| O/U 43.5 | 76% |
| SMU O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Florida State O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| O/U 45.5 | 73% |
| SMU O/U 22.5 | 73% |
| Florida State O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| O/U 47.5 | 67% |
| Florida State O/U 21.5 | 67% |
| Florida State O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| O/U 49.5 | 63% |
| SMU O/U 24.5 | 63% |
| SMU O/U 25.5 | 62% |
| Florida State O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| O/U 51.5 | 59% |
| SMU vs. Florida State | 57% |
| O/U 52.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| 1H Moneyline | 55% |
| SMU 1H O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| Florida State O/U 24.5 | 54% |
| SMU O/U 27.5 | 53% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Florida State O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| Florida State O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| Spread: SMU (-2.5) | 52% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| SMU 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Quintrevion Wisner: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Jayvan Boggs: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Randy Pittman Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Landen Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Jalen Hale: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Desirrio Riles: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| SMU O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| SMU 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| SMU 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| SMU 1H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| SMU 1H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Dramekco Green: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Christian Rhodes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Isaiah Robertson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| SMU O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Florida State O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| SMU O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| O/U 55.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| Florida State O/U 27.5 | 46% |
| SMU O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| O/U 57.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| SMU O/U 30.5 | 41% |
| Florida State O/U 28.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Florida State O/U 29.5 | 39% |
| Florida State O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| O/U 59.5 | 37% |
| SMU O/U 31.5 | 36% |
| Florida State O/U 30.5 | 35% |
| Florida State O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| SMU O/U 33.5 | 33% |
| O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| Kendrick Raphael: Anytime Touchdown | 32% |
| Spread -34.5 | 31% |
| SMU O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 29% |
| Ousmane Kromah: Anytime Touchdown | 29% |
| Spread -31.5 | 28% |
| Florida State O/U 32.5 | 28% |
| Florida State O/U 31.5 | 28% |
| O/U 63.5 | 27% |
| SMU O/U 34.5 | 27% |
| Samuel Singleton Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Derrick McFall: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| O/U 65.5 | 24% |
| Ashton Daniels: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 67.5 | 21% |
| Duce Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 21% |
| Yamir Knight: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| Micahi Danzy: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| SMU O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| Yannick Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 18% |
| O/U 69.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| Jalen Cooper: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| Theo Melin Ohrstrom: Anytime Touchdown | 15% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| O/U 71.5 | 13% |
| Kevin Jennings: Anytime Touchdown | 13% |
| Florida State O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| O/U 73.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| Spread -24.5 | 7% |
| Spread -27.5 | 5% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 93% YES probability for SMU vs. Florida State. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 7 at 7:30PM ET: If SMU wins, the market will resolve to "SMU". If Florida State wins, the market will resolve to "Florida State". If the …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $86K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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