Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Army 1H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Army 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Army 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Army 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 91% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 91% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| O/U 32.5 | 72% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 68% |
| O/U 45.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| South Florida O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 70.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| South Florida O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Army 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Army 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Army 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Cale Hellums: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| D.J. Crowther: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Godspower Nwawuihe: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jason Collins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Samari Howard: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Arhmad Branch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Van Buren Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zach Mundell: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Stratton Fuller: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bryson Rodgers: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jake Rendina: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| JeyQuan Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brady Anderson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chase Garnett: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Wyatt Sullivan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Lloyd Benson III: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cameron Seldon: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Armani Winfield: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Alvon Isaac: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mudia Reuben: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tobi Olawole: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| South Florida 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Army 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Army 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Army 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| O/U 54.5 | 46% |
| Spread -16.5 | 46% |
| O/U 56.5 | 46% |
| Spread -14.5 | 45% |
| Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| O/U 46.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -11.5 | 42% |
| O/U 38.5 | 41% |
| Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| O/U 51.5 | 39% |
| O/U 52.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| O/U 44.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Spread -1.5 | 21% |
| South Florida vs. Army | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 10% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| O/U 68.5 | 5% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| South Florida 1H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| South Florida 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| South Florida 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Army 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| South Florida 1H O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| South Florida 1H O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| South Florida 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Army 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, south florida vs. army stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between South Florida and Army, scheduled for September 12 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Florida" if South Florida win the…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $114K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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