Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 81% |
| Spread: James Madison (-6.5) | 80% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| Spread -7.5 | 69% |
| Spread -10.5 | 62% |
| O/U 41.5 | 62% |
| James Madison O/U 27.5 | 62% |
| Spread -4.5 | 58% |
| James Madison O/U 28.5 | 57% |
| Liberty O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| Liberty O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Liberty O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Liberty O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Liberty O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Liberty 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Liberty 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Liberty 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Liberty O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Liberty O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Liberty O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Liberty O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| George Pettaway: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Seth Cromwell: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Herman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kanye Udoh: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Camden Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Deshawn Purdie: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kam Davis: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Peyton Jones: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jeremiah Harrison: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Corey Scott: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jamari Person: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Rashawn Cunningham: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Makai Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cole Keller: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaylon Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Scott: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Braeden Wisloski: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jon Monteiro: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Lee Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Za'Ron Collins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 43% |
| O/U 61.5 | 43% |
| Spread -16.5 | 41% |
| Spread -20.5 | 38% |
| James Madison O/U 34.5 | 38% |
| James Madison O/U 30.5 | 35% |
| O/U 47.5 | 34% |
| Spread -17.5 | 33% |
| Liberty O/U 21.5 | 29% |
| O/U 50.5 | 26% |
| O/U 51.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 20% |
| O/U 53.5 | 20% |
| Liberty O/U 27.5 | 19% |
| Spread -27.5 | 17% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| O/U 55.5 | 14% |
| Spread -24.5 | 11% |
| Liberty vs. James Madison | 10% |
| O/U 59.5 | 10% |
| O/U 65.5 | 5% |
| O/U 71.5 | 5% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Liberty 1H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Liberty 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Liberty 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to liberty vs. james madison. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 12:00PM ET: If Liberty wins, the market will resolve to "Liberty". If James Madison wins, the market will resolve to "James Madison"…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $222K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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