Guarani FC SP vs. AA Internacional Limeira SP

Platform comparison

Market context

Guarani FC SP and AA Internacional Limeira SP are scheduled to contest a Série C fixture on Monday, 27 July 2026. The current crowd-implied probability stands at 100% YES, indicating near-certainty that the match will occur as scheduled. For traders using conditional order logic or automated monitoring systems, this settlement window requires attention to fixture confirmation and any last-minute postponement announcements from the Confederação Brasileira de Futebol (CBF).

Série C matches have historically shown high completion rates once officially scheduled, though weather disruptions and administrative delays occasionally force rescheduling within 48 hours of kick-off. Recent comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons saw fewer than 3% of confirmed fixtures cancelled outright; most deferrals were rescheduled within the same calendar week. The 100% probability reflects this baseline reliability, though it leaves minimal margin for unforeseen circumstances.

Traders should monitor CBF fixture announcements and venue status updates through official channels and regional São Paulo football federation communications. Guarani's home ground (Estádio Brinco de Ouro) and Limeira's typical venue conditions warrant checking in the 72 hours preceding kick-off. Automated feeds tracking CBF press releases or conditional triggers tied to official postponement notices would flag material changes. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on 27 July, creating a hard deadline for resolution; matches played after that timestamp would require clarification on settlement interpretation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.