Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Goiás EC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Goiás EC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Goiás EC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Goiás EC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Goiás EC O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| Goiás EC O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Ceará SC O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Ceará SC O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Ceará SC O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Ceará SC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Goiás EC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Ceará SC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Goiás EC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Ceará SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ceará SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Goiás EC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Ceará SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ceará SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Brazil Serie B fixture between Goiás EC and Ceará SC took place on Saturday, 4 July at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro in Goiânia, with Goiás winning 2–0 after a 1–0 first-half lead[1][10]. This result confirms the 100% YES settlement for the “More Markets” prediction tied to the match outcome, as the game concluded with a decisive home victory rather than a draw or away win.
Historically, Goiás has dominated this pairing, winning five of the last 12 meetings while Ceará secured only two, with five ending in draws[2][6]. Goiás has not lost in their past four encounters against Ceará, including a 2–1 home win in their last meeting, underscoring a consistent pattern of home superiority that aligns with the current 2–0 result[4]. For a power-user evaluating conditional order tools or copy-trading bots, this H2H trend offers a programmable signal: home wins in this fixture have occurred with high frequency, making them a reliable target for automated strategies.
Traders should monitor upcoming Serie B schedules and any late squad announcements, as player availability can shift match dynamics in tight contests. Goiás currently sit 11th and Ceará 15th in the table, suggesting a mid-to-lower-tier clash where form and home advantage often dictate outcomes[9]. While no recent news source directly cites pre-match developments for this fixture, the 2–0 result reflects Goiás’s stronger home record, having won four of their home games at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro this season[1]. This reinforces the utility of tracking venue-specific performance data when building predictive models for conditional betting apps.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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