Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| EC Vitória O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| EC Vitória 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| EC Vitória (-1.5) | 0% |
| Botafogo FR (-1.5) | 0% |
| EC Vitória (-2.5) | 0% |
| Botafogo FR (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| EC Vitória O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| EC Vitória O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| EC Vitória 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| EC Vitória 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| EC Vitória 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
EC Vitória host Botafogo in a Brazil Série A match at Estádio Manoel Barradas in Salvador, with kick-off listed at 21:30 UTC on 16 August 2026. The current market is for “more markets” rather than the match result itself, so the 0% YES price implies traders are treating the settlement condition as already unavailable or effectively closed once the game window passed.
For a comparable read, these event-specific ancillary markets tend to track whether the fixture is formally posted, reaches the scheduled start, and generates additional market inventory before the settlement cut-off. Here, the match was on the league calendar for Sunday 16 August, and multiple match listings place it in the evening slot, which is the relevant baseline for any bot or scanner checking whether a new prop series appears or remains live through the window.[12][9][3]
A programmatic trader would watch the fixture feed, any late rescheduling, and whether the exchange/API exposes extra lines after line-ups or official start. The key catalysts are simple: a schedule change, a data-feed delay, or an update to the market catalogue before the 21:30 UTC settlement deadline; absent one of those, a 0% implied probability generally reflects a stale or already-settled-looking outcome rather than a live pricing disagreement.[12][9][3]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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