Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| SC Corinthians Paulista O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SC Corinthians Paulista O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SC Corinthians Paulista O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| SC Corinthians Paulista 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SC Corinthians Paulista 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) | 96% |
| SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5) | 83% |
| O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 53% |
| SC Corinthians Paulista 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| SC Corinthians Paulista 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clube do Remo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clube do Remo 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score | 36% |
| Clube do Remo O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Clube do Remo O/U 1.5 | 5% |
| Clube do Remo O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| Clube do Remo 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Clube do Remo (-1.5) | 0% |
| Clube do Remo (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| Clube do Remo 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
SC Corinthians Paulista host Clube do Remo in a Brazilian Série A match that the crowd is pricing as a near-certain **Yes** for the “more markets” cluster, with implied probability at 96%. That level is well above the broader match view: third-party pricing for the same fixture has Corinthians around a 63% home-win chance, while model outputs on the scoreline sit mostly in the 56%–58% range, which suggests the market is effectively assuming the auxiliary selections are tied to a strong home-favourite script rather than a coin-flip game. [1][2][3][12][13]
For a power-user running this programmatically, the useful reference cases are the same kinds of football slates where the base result is already heavily shaded to one side and the “more markets” bucket then tracks downstream dependencies such as first goalscorer, team totals, cards, corners, or any line item that is mechanically correlated with a Corinthians-dominant match state. This kind of market is usually read off the live injury and lineup feed, plus any late schedule or competition updates, because even small changes in starting XI quality can shift the probability of secondary outcomes more sharply than the headline 1X2 line. Polymarket’s fixture note also flags minor uncertainty from absences, including Vitinho and Hugo, which is the sort of input that matters most if you are automating conditional orders around team news. [1][14]
The main catalysts to watch are the confirmed team sheets, late scratches, and any venue or timing changes before the 22:30 UTC settlement cut-off. ESPN’s live listing and odds board show Corinthians as the clear favourite at -190 with an under 2.5 leaning still present in the pricing, so traders watching bots or copy-trading flows should focus on whether pre-match information reinforces the favourite narrative or narrows it enough to pull the “more markets” bundle back towards a lower-confidence regime. [13][9][14]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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